Contact Luck Leaderboard

Contact Luck estimates how favorable a hitter's batted-ball outcomes have been relative to expectation. +3.0 means roughly three more favorable runs per 100 eligible batted balls than expected. The interval shows the uncertainty around that estimate. Contact Luck describes what happened — it is not a projection of future performance.

Data through Aug. 10, 2026 111 qualified hitters

Ranked players only (111 of 623 players qualify) — see methodology for the qualification rule.

Most favorable realized luck Least favorable outcomes relative to expectation

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	8.18	25.3	309	116	8.9
2	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.95	20.7	348	112	8.3
3	CJ Abrams	5.90	19.2	326	111	8.2
4	Chase Meidroth	4.54	14.2	313	111	8.0
5	Liam Hicks	4.35	14.5	334	105	7.4
6	Chandler Simpson	3.79	14.5	382	106	7.2
7	Nick Gonzales	3.76	13.2	350	112	7.5
8	Colson Montgomery	3.64	9.6	263	105	9.5
9	Otto Lopez	3.55	13.9	393	115	7.0
10	Nolan Arenado	3.37	10.0	298	109	7.7
11	Justin Crawford	3.30	8.5	258	101	9.4
12	Ezequiel Duran	3.23	9.2	286	105	8.4
13	Shohei Ohtani	3.08	9.4	307	107	7.9
14	Brandon Lowe	3.07	9.3	303	107	8.2
15	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2.95	7.4	252	101	9.4
16	TJ Rumfield	2.84	9.8	344	114	7.9
17	Kyle Schwarber	2.65	6.6	249	105	9.2
18	Brooks Lee	2.64	9.0	340	109	8.2
19	Jung Hoo Lee	2.49	9.2	369	109	8.3
20	Ernie Clement	2.47	10.0	403	117	7.3
21	Ian Happ	2.39	6.3	263	106	9.0
22	Zach Neto	2.36	7.0	296	114	7.9
23	Brandon Marsh	2.13	6.5	307	111	8.1
24	Luis Arraez	2.10	9.3	442	112	6.8
25	Hunter Goodman	1.92	4.9	255	105	8.3
26	Luke Keaschall	1.83	5.6	307	107	7.5
27	Randy Arozarena	1.81	5.6	308	111	8.7
28	Willy Adames	1.78	5.4	302	112	8.9
29	Andrés Giménez	1.71	4.9	288	106	9.2
30	Christian Walker	1.70	5.3	310	113	8.3
31	Caleb Durbin	1.64	5.2	319	107	8.6
32	Bryan Reynolds	1.61	5.0	311	119	7.9
33	Kevin McGonigle	1.58	5.8	367	114	7.4
34	Ben Rice	1.41	4.2	297	109	10.0
35	Cole Young	1.32	4.7	356	116	7.8
36	Jordan Walker	1.30	4.2	324	113	7.4
37	Brice Turang	1.27	4.0	313	112	7.7
38	Corbin Carroll	1.25	4.0	322	114	7.6
39	Sal Stewart	1.18	3.9	335	114	8.7
40	Isaac Paredes	1.17	4.0	344	111	7.3
41	Yandy Díaz	1.13	4.2	371	111	8.1
42	Jonathan Aranda	1.07	3.4	321	113	8.2
43	Rafael Devers	1.03	3.3	317	116	8.9
44	Kody Clemens	0.98	2.8	291	101	9.2
45	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.2
46	Andy Pages	0.91	3.2	353	115	8.2
47	Bryson Stott	0.87	2.8	323	112	7.6
48	Freddie Freeman	0.83	3.0	364	113	7.8
49	Daylen Lile	0.80	2.9	356	117	7.0
50	Tyler Soderstrom	0.75	2.2	297	104	9.2
51	Matt Olson	0.74	2.5	331	119	7.4
52	Trea Turner	0.72	2.6	366	114	8.1
53	Ozzie Albies	0.65	2.6	392	119	7.3
54	Dillon Dingler	0.63	2.0	314	106	9.9
55	Brayan Rocchio	0.61	2.1	344	116	7.3
56	Xavier Edwards	0.58	2.2	371	117	6.7
57	Cody Bellinger	0.53	1.6	307	102	10.2
58	Max Muncy	0.49	1.2	251	101	8.6
59	Spencer Torkelson	0.45	1.2	267	113	9.8
60	Carson Benge	0.43	1.4	321	112	8.6
61	Jake Burger	0.40	1.2	295	112	8.8
62	Isaac Collins	0.36	0.9	254	100	8.4
63	Kyle Tucker	0.32	1.0	310	110	7.9
64	Luis García Jr.	0.30	0.9	311	108	8.7
65	Mauricio Dubón	0.26	0.9	361	113	6.8
66	Kazuma Okamoto	0.24	0.7	276	109	8.5
67	Michael Harris II	0.23	0.8	344	111	8.1
68	Nasim Nuñez	-0.02	-0.0	259	105	8.8
69	Alex Bregman	-0.14	-0.5	376	116	8.1
70	Michael Busch	-0.28	-0.9	331	116	8.4
71	Colt Keith	-0.29	-0.7	248	102	10.7
72	Steven Kwan	-0.31	-1.0	334	107	7.6
73	Masyn Winn	-0.52	-1.6	310	108	7.6
74	Jakob Marsee	-0.56	-1.6	283	109	9.6
75	Junior Caminero	-0.60	-2.1	351	116	6.5
76	Iván Herrera	-0.75	-2.6	351	117	6.6
77	Alec Burleson	-0.76	-2.8	370	115	8.0
78	Yordan Alvarez	-0.80	-2.7	341	115	8.4
79	Kyle Karros	-0.81	-2.1	255	104	8.4
80	Josh Naylor	-0.92	-3.4	369	111	7.6
81	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.00	-3.5	355	116	8.0
82	Bo Bichette	-1.01	-3.9	386	118	8.0
83	Gavin Sheets	-1.08	-2.7	252	104	8.6
84	Nico Hoerner	-1.09	-4.5	418	117	7.0
85	Gunnar Henderson	-1.12	-3.9	349	118	8.8
86	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.15	-4.2	363	117	7.7
87	Josh Bell	-1.25	-4.1	325	113	8.7
88	Wilyer Abreu	-1.51	-5.2	342	114	8.1
89	Brett Baty	-1.66	-3.9	236	100	7.0
90	Taylor Ward	-1.91	-6.2	325	114	7.7
91	Austin Riley	-1.93	-5.4	278	116	8.7
92	Julio Rodríguez	-2.00	-6.5	326	107	6.6
93	Dansby Swanson	-2.17	-6.2	286	109	8.4
94	Jarren Duran	-2.46	-7.4	299	106	9.3
95	Bryce Harper	-2.58	-8.2	318	116	9.2
96	Cam Smith	-2.61	-7.3	280	108	9.3
97	Jo Adell	-2.62	-8.6	328	113	8.3
98	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-2.72	-9.6	352	110	7.5
99	Pete Alonso	-2.78	-8.9	321	115	8.4
100	JJ Wetherholt	-3.17	-11.3	356	112	8.3
101	Jackson Merrill	-3.23	-10.9	337	114	8.2
102	William Contreras	-3.24	-11.4	353	108	6.8
103	Miguel Vargas	-3.52	-12.0	341	113	8.2
104	Ketel Marte	-3.70	-14.2	383	113	6.5
105	Brandon Nimmo	-3.78	-12.4	328	112	10.3
106	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	9.6
107	Ezequiel Tovar	-4.14	-11.2	270	101	8.0
108	Xander Bogaerts	-4.14	-12.6	305	109	7.4
109	Manny Machado	-4.26	-13.9	325	115	7.8
110	Alec Bohm	-4.32	-15.3	354	113	7.7
111	Salvador Perez	-6.49	-21.9	338	111	6.4

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Salvador Perez	-6.49	-21.9	338	111	6.4
2	Alec Bohm	-4.32	-15.3	354	113	7.7
3	Manny Machado	-4.26	-13.9	325	115	7.8
4	Xander Bogaerts	-4.14	-12.6	305	109	7.4
5	Ezequiel Tovar	-4.14	-11.2	270	101	8.0
6	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	9.6
7	Brandon Nimmo	-3.78	-12.4	328	112	10.3
8	Ketel Marte	-3.70	-14.2	383	113	6.5
9	Miguel Vargas	-3.52	-12.0	341	113	8.2
10	William Contreras	-3.24	-11.4	353	108	6.8
11	Jackson Merrill	-3.23	-10.9	337	114	8.2
12	JJ Wetherholt	-3.17	-11.3	356	112	8.3
13	Pete Alonso	-2.78	-8.9	321	115	8.4
14	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-2.72	-9.6	352	110	7.5
15	Jo Adell	-2.62	-8.6	328	113	8.3
16	Cam Smith	-2.61	-7.3	280	108	9.3
17	Bryce Harper	-2.58	-8.2	318	116	9.2
18	Jarren Duran	-2.46	-7.4	299	106	9.3
19	Dansby Swanson	-2.17	-6.2	286	109	8.4
20	Julio Rodríguez	-2.00	-6.5	326	107	6.6
21	Austin Riley	-1.93	-5.4	278	116	8.7
22	Taylor Ward	-1.91	-6.2	325	114	7.7
23	Brett Baty	-1.66	-3.9	236	100	7.0
24	Wilyer Abreu	-1.51	-5.2	342	114	8.1
25	Josh Bell	-1.25	-4.1	325	113	8.7
26	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.15	-4.2	363	117	7.7
27	Gunnar Henderson	-1.12	-3.9	349	118	8.8
28	Nico Hoerner	-1.09	-4.5	418	117	7.0
29	Gavin Sheets	-1.08	-2.7	252	104	8.6
30	Bo Bichette	-1.01	-3.9	386	118	8.0
31	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.00	-3.5	355	116	8.0
32	Josh Naylor	-0.92	-3.4	369	111	7.6
33	Kyle Karros	-0.81	-2.1	255	104	8.4
34	Yordan Alvarez	-0.80	-2.7	341	115	8.4
35	Alec Burleson	-0.76	-2.8	370	115	8.0
36	Iván Herrera	-0.75	-2.6	351	117	6.6
37	Junior Caminero	-0.60	-2.1	351	116	6.5
38	Jakob Marsee	-0.56	-1.6	283	109	9.6
39	Masyn Winn	-0.52	-1.6	310	108	7.6
40	Steven Kwan	-0.31	-1.0	334	107	7.6
41	Colt Keith	-0.29	-0.7	248	102	10.7
42	Michael Busch	-0.28	-0.9	331	116	8.4
43	Alex Bregman	-0.14	-0.5	376	116	8.1
44	Nasim Nuñez	-0.02	-0.0	259	105	8.8
45	Michael Harris II	0.23	0.8	344	111	8.1
46	Kazuma Okamoto	0.24	0.7	276	109	8.5
47	Mauricio Dubón	0.26	0.9	361	113	6.8
48	Luis García Jr.	0.30	0.9	311	108	8.7
49	Kyle Tucker	0.32	1.0	310	110	7.9
50	Isaac Collins	0.36	0.9	254	100	8.4
51	Jake Burger	0.40	1.2	295	112	8.8
52	Carson Benge	0.43	1.4	321	112	8.6
53	Spencer Torkelson	0.45	1.2	267	113	9.8
54	Max Muncy	0.49	1.2	251	101	8.6
55	Cody Bellinger	0.53	1.6	307	102	10.2
56	Xavier Edwards	0.58	2.2	371	117	6.7
57	Brayan Rocchio	0.61	2.1	344	116	7.3
58	Dillon Dingler	0.63	2.0	314	106	9.9
59	Ozzie Albies	0.65	2.6	392	119	7.3
60	Trea Turner	0.72	2.6	366	114	8.1
61	Matt Olson	0.74	2.5	331	119	7.4
62	Tyler Soderstrom	0.75	2.2	297	104	9.2
63	Daylen Lile	0.80	2.9	356	117	7.0
64	Freddie Freeman	0.83	3.0	364	113	7.8
65	Bryson Stott	0.87	2.8	323	112	7.6
66	Andy Pages	0.91	3.2	353	115	8.2
67	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.2
68	Kody Clemens	0.98	2.8	291	101	9.2
69	Rafael Devers	1.03	3.3	317	116	8.9
70	Jonathan Aranda	1.07	3.4	321	113	8.2
71	Yandy Díaz	1.13	4.2	371	111	8.1
72	Isaac Paredes	1.17	4.0	344	111	7.3
73	Sal Stewart	1.18	3.9	335	114	8.7
74	Corbin Carroll	1.25	4.0	322	114	7.6
75	Brice Turang	1.27	4.0	313	112	7.7
76	Jordan Walker	1.30	4.2	324	113	7.4
77	Cole Young	1.32	4.7	356	116	7.8
78	Ben Rice	1.41	4.2	297	109	10.0
79	Kevin McGonigle	1.58	5.8	367	114	7.4
80	Bryan Reynolds	1.61	5.0	311	119	7.9
81	Caleb Durbin	1.64	5.2	319	107	8.6
82	Christian Walker	1.70	5.3	310	113	8.3
83	Andrés Giménez	1.71	4.9	288	106	9.2
84	Willy Adames	1.78	5.4	302	112	8.9
85	Randy Arozarena	1.81	5.6	308	111	8.7
86	Luke Keaschall	1.83	5.6	307	107	7.5
87	Hunter Goodman	1.92	4.9	255	105	8.3
88	Luis Arraez	2.10	9.3	442	112	6.8
89	Brandon Marsh	2.13	6.5	307	111	8.1
90	Zach Neto	2.36	7.0	296	114	7.9
91	Ian Happ	2.39	6.3	263	106	9.0
92	Ernie Clement	2.47	10.0	403	117	7.3
93	Jung Hoo Lee	2.49	9.2	369	109	8.3
94	Brooks Lee	2.64	9.0	340	109	8.2
95	Kyle Schwarber	2.65	6.6	249	105	9.2
96	TJ Rumfield	2.84	9.8	344	114	7.9
97	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2.95	7.4	252	101	9.4
98	Brandon Lowe	3.07	9.3	303	107	8.2
99	Shohei Ohtani	3.08	9.4	307	107	7.9
100	Ezequiel Duran	3.23	9.2	286	105	8.4
101	Justin Crawford	3.30	8.5	258	101	9.4
102	Nolan Arenado	3.37	10.0	298	109	7.7
103	Otto Lopez	3.55	13.9	393	115	7.0
104	Colson Montgomery	3.64	9.6	263	105	9.5
105	Nick Gonzales	3.76	13.2	350	112	7.5
106	Chandler Simpson	3.79	14.5	382	106	7.2
107	Liam Hicks	4.35	14.5	334	105	7.4
108	Chase Meidroth	4.54	14.2	313	111	8.0
109	CJ Abrams	5.90	19.2	326	111	8.2
110	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.95	20.7	348	112	8.3
111	Pete Crow-Armstrong	8.18	25.3	309	116	8.9

Columns can be re-sorted for exploration, but a re-sorted table is always labeled "Sorted view" and is never presented as an alternative official ranking. The Rank column always shows the stored, frozen official rank — click it to return to that order.