Contact Luck Leaderboard

Contact Luck estimates how favorable a hitter's batted-ball outcomes have been relative to expectation. +3.0 means roughly three more favorable runs per 100 eligible batted balls than expected. The interval shows the uncertainty around that estimate. Contact Luck describes what happened — it is not a projection of future performance.

Data through Aug. 12, 2026 118 qualified hitters

Ranked players only (118 of 627 players qualify) — see methodology for the qualification rule.

Most favorable realized luck Least favorable outcomes relative to expectation

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	7.94	25.1	316	118	9.0
2	CJ Abrams	5.97	19.7	330	112	8.0
3	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.81	20.7	356	114	7.7
4	Chase Meidroth	5.04	15.9	316	112	7.9
5	Liam Hicks	4.36	14.9	342	107	7.2
6	Nick Gonzales	3.84	13.6	355	114	7.4
7	Chandler Simpson	3.79	14.7	387	107	6.7
8	Jake McCarthy	3.68	11.7	318	100	7.8
9	Colson Montgomery	3.58	9.5	266	107	9.1
10	Ezequiel Duran	3.35	9.6	288	107	8.4
11	Seiya Suzuki	3.33	9.2	275	101	7.2
12	Nolan Arenado	3.29	10.1	306	111	7.6
13	Otto Lopez	3.21	12.9	402	117	7.0
14	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.02	7.7	256	103	9.2
15	Brandon Lowe	2.96	9.1	307	109	9.0
16	Brooks Lee	2.85	9.9	348	111	7.9
17	Shohei Ohtani	2.83	8.8	313	109	8.4
18	Justin Crawford	2.79	7.4	264	103	9.2
19	TJ Rumfield	2.78	9.7	348	116	8.1
20	Kyle Schwarber	2.59	6.5	253	107	9.2
21	Zach Neto	2.51	7.5	300	116	8.3
22	Randy Arozarena	2.50	7.8	314	113	8.8
23	Elly De La Cruz	2.41	6.6	274	100	9.1
24	Ian Happ	2.37	6.4	269	108	8.7
25	Ernie Clement	2.33	9.5	410	119	7.2
26	Willson Contreras	2.25	5.9	261	101	9.4
27	Willy Adames	2.21	6.8	309	114	9.0
28	Jung Hoo Lee	2.06	7.8	377	111	7.7
29	Luis Arraez	1.93	8.7	450	114	6.3
30	Brandon Marsh	1.90	5.9	312	113	7.8
31	Andrés Giménez	1.89	5.5	292	108	9.0
32	Luke Keaschall	1.71	5.3	311	109	7.8
33	Kevin McGonigle	1.63	6.1	373	116	7.5
34	Ben Rice	1.60	4.8	301	111	10.3
35	Caleb Durbin	1.60	5.2	324	109	8.9
36	Hunter Goodman	1.50	3.9	261	107	8.4
37	Christian Walker	1.46	4.6	314	114	8.3
38	Corbin Carroll	1.46	4.8	330	116	7.6
39	Sal Stewart	1.36	4.7	342	116	8.1
40	Jordan Walker	1.35	4.4	328	115	7.2
41	Yandy Díaz	1.34	5.1	378	113	8.3
42	Bryan Reynolds	1.21	3.8	316	121	7.2
43	Cole Young	1.15	4.2	364	118	7.4
44	Kody Clemens	1.14	3.4	296	103	8.4
45	Brice Turang	1.08	3.4	319	114	7.5
46	Isaac Paredes	1.06	3.7	352	113	7.3
47	Bryson Stott	0.99	3.2	327	114	7.8
48	Jonathan Aranda	0.95	3.1	327	115	7.8
49	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.2
50	Andy Pages	0.92	3.3	360	117	8.2
51	Rafael Devers	0.87	2.8	320	118	8.6
52	Freddie Freeman	0.86	3.2	366	115	7.4
53	Spencer Torkelson	0.78	2.1	271	115	9.4
54	Alex Bregman	0.78	3.0	382	118	8.6
55	Trea Turner	0.68	2.5	371	116	7.4
56	Carson Benge	0.68	2.2	329	114	9.1
57	Daylen Lile	0.65	2.3	363	119	7.4
58	Matt Olson	0.57	1.9	336	121	7.5
59	Xavier Edwards	0.57	2.1	378	119	6.7
60	Kazuma Okamoto	0.56	1.6	279	110	8.7
61	Tyler Soderstrom	0.55	1.6	300	105	8.6
62	Cody Bellinger	0.53	1.6	307	102	10.1
63	Max Muncy	0.51	1.3	258	103	8.6
64	Dillon Dingler	0.44	1.4	319	108	9.3
65	Ozzie Albies	0.35	1.4	399	121	7.3
66	Isaac Collins	0.31	0.8	257	102	9.0
67	Luis García Jr.	0.29	0.9	318	110	8.5
68	Brayan Rocchio	0.22	0.8	350	118	7.4
69	Michael Harris II	0.13	0.5	349	113	8.0
70	Jake Burger	-0.04	-0.1	301	114	9.3
71	Kyle Tucker	-0.07	-0.2	316	112	7.6
72	Nasim Nuñez	-0.09	-0.2	265	107	8.6
73	Nolan Schanuel	-0.10	-0.3	316	100	7.3
74	Mauricio Dubón	-0.14	-0.5	368	115	7.0
75	Steven Kwan	-0.17	-0.6	341	109	7.3
76	Michael Busch	-0.30	-1.0	338	118	8.9
77	Masyn Winn	-0.41	-1.3	314	110	7.2
78	Alec Burleson	-0.46	-1.7	373	117	7.8
79	Junior Caminero	-0.51	-1.8	358	118	6.5
80	Colt Keith	-0.55	-1.4	252	103	10.1
81	Kyle Karros	-0.81	-2.1	258	105	8.3
82	Yordan Alvarez	-0.82	-2.8	345	117	8.3
83	Josh Naylor	-0.90	-3.3	371	112	7.0
84	Jakob Marsee	-0.90	-2.6	290	111	8.8
85	Nico Hoerner	-0.91	-3.9	427	119	7.0
86	Josh Bell	-1.04	-3.4	331	115	8.3
87	Wilyer Abreu	-1.09	-3.8	347	116	8.0
88	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.09	-3.9	361	117	7.5
89	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.11	-4.1	366	118	7.1
90	Chase DeLauter	-1.13	-3.7	327	101	9.0
91	Gunnar Henderson	-1.17	-4.2	356	120	8.3
92	Iván Herrera	-1.25	-4.4	356	119	6.5
93	Bo Bichette	-1.32	-5.2	393	120	8.3
94	Gavin Sheets	-1.45	-3.7	255	106	8.5
95	Brett Baty	-1.66	-3.9	236	100	7.5
96	Julio Rodríguez	-1.96	-6.5	331	109	7.1
97	Taylor Ward	-2.12	-7.0	332	116	7.0
98	Pete Alonso	-2.26	-7.4	327	117	8.2
99	Austin Riley	-2.37	-6.7	284	118	8.6
100	Dansby Swanson	-2.40	-7.0	290	111	8.3
101	Jarren Duran	-2.43	-7.4	305	108	9.0
102	Bryce Harper	-2.45	-7.9	321	118	9.4
103	Jo Adell	-2.57	-8.6	335	115	8.5
104	Marcus Semien	-2.90	-8.0	277	101	9.3
105	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-2.97	-10.7	360	112	7.7
106	Cam Smith	-3.05	-8.7	286	110	9.7
107	Jackson Merrill	-3.10	-10.6	343	116	8.4
108	JJ Wetherholt	-3.16	-11.4	360	114	8.3
109	Ketel Marte	-3.19	-12.5	390	115	6.7
110	William Contreras	-3.47	-12.5	359	110	6.2
111	Miguel Vargas	-3.69	-12.7	345	114	8.5
112	Brandon Nimmo	-3.69	-12.3	334	114	10.1
113	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.73	-10.2	274	103	7.9
114	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	9.8
115	Xander Bogaerts	-4.11	-12.8	312	111	7.5
116	Manny Machado	-4.33	-14.5	334	117	7.8
117	Alec Bohm	-4.40	-15.9	360	115	7.8
118	Salvador Perez	-6.41	-22.1	345	113	6.6

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Salvador Perez	-6.41	-22.1	345	113	6.6
2	Alec Bohm	-4.40	-15.9	360	115	7.8
3	Manny Machado	-4.33	-14.5	334	117	7.8
4	Xander Bogaerts	-4.11	-12.8	312	111	7.5
5	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	9.8
6	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.73	-10.2	274	103	7.9
7	Brandon Nimmo	-3.69	-12.3	334	114	10.1
8	Miguel Vargas	-3.69	-12.7	345	114	8.5
9	William Contreras	-3.47	-12.5	359	110	6.2
10	Ketel Marte	-3.19	-12.5	390	115	6.7
11	JJ Wetherholt	-3.16	-11.4	360	114	8.3
12	Jackson Merrill	-3.10	-10.6	343	116	8.4
13	Cam Smith	-3.05	-8.7	286	110	9.7
14	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-2.97	-10.7	360	112	7.7
15	Marcus Semien	-2.90	-8.0	277	101	9.3
16	Jo Adell	-2.57	-8.6	335	115	8.5
17	Bryce Harper	-2.45	-7.9	321	118	9.4
18	Jarren Duran	-2.43	-7.4	305	108	9.0
19	Dansby Swanson	-2.40	-7.0	290	111	8.3
20	Austin Riley	-2.37	-6.7	284	118	8.6
21	Pete Alonso	-2.26	-7.4	327	117	8.2
22	Taylor Ward	-2.12	-7.0	332	116	7.0
23	Julio Rodríguez	-1.96	-6.5	331	109	7.1
24	Brett Baty	-1.66	-3.9	236	100	7.5
25	Gavin Sheets	-1.45	-3.7	255	106	8.5
26	Bo Bichette	-1.32	-5.2	393	120	8.3
27	Iván Herrera	-1.25	-4.4	356	119	6.5
28	Gunnar Henderson	-1.17	-4.2	356	120	8.3
29	Chase DeLauter	-1.13	-3.7	327	101	9.0
30	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.11	-4.1	366	118	7.1
31	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.09	-3.9	361	117	7.5
32	Wilyer Abreu	-1.09	-3.8	347	116	8.0
33	Josh Bell	-1.04	-3.4	331	115	8.3
34	Nico Hoerner	-0.91	-3.9	427	119	7.0
35	Jakob Marsee	-0.90	-2.6	290	111	8.8
36	Josh Naylor	-0.90	-3.3	371	112	7.0
37	Yordan Alvarez	-0.82	-2.8	345	117	8.3
38	Kyle Karros	-0.81	-2.1	258	105	8.3
39	Colt Keith	-0.55	-1.4	252	103	10.1
40	Junior Caminero	-0.51	-1.8	358	118	6.5
41	Alec Burleson	-0.46	-1.7	373	117	7.8
42	Masyn Winn	-0.41	-1.3	314	110	7.2
43	Michael Busch	-0.30	-1.0	338	118	8.9
44	Steven Kwan	-0.17	-0.6	341	109	7.3
45	Mauricio Dubón	-0.14	-0.5	368	115	7.0
46	Nolan Schanuel	-0.10	-0.3	316	100	7.3
47	Nasim Nuñez	-0.09	-0.2	265	107	8.6
48	Kyle Tucker	-0.07	-0.2	316	112	7.6
49	Jake Burger	-0.04	-0.1	301	114	9.3
50	Michael Harris II	0.13	0.5	349	113	8.0
51	Brayan Rocchio	0.22	0.8	350	118	7.4
52	Luis García Jr.	0.29	0.9	318	110	8.5
53	Isaac Collins	0.31	0.8	257	102	9.0
54	Ozzie Albies	0.35	1.4	399	121	7.3
55	Dillon Dingler	0.44	1.4	319	108	9.3
56	Max Muncy	0.51	1.3	258	103	8.6
57	Cody Bellinger	0.53	1.6	307	102	10.1
58	Tyler Soderstrom	0.55	1.6	300	105	8.6
59	Kazuma Okamoto	0.56	1.6	279	110	8.7
60	Xavier Edwards	0.57	2.1	378	119	6.7
61	Matt Olson	0.57	1.9	336	121	7.5
62	Daylen Lile	0.65	2.3	363	119	7.4
63	Carson Benge	0.68	2.2	329	114	9.1
64	Trea Turner	0.68	2.5	371	116	7.4
65	Alex Bregman	0.78	3.0	382	118	8.6
66	Spencer Torkelson	0.78	2.1	271	115	9.4
67	Freddie Freeman	0.86	3.2	366	115	7.4
68	Rafael Devers	0.87	2.8	320	118	8.6
69	Andy Pages	0.92	3.3	360	117	8.2
70	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.2
71	Jonathan Aranda	0.95	3.1	327	115	7.8
72	Bryson Stott	0.99	3.2	327	114	7.8
73	Isaac Paredes	1.06	3.7	352	113	7.3
74	Brice Turang	1.08	3.4	319	114	7.5
75	Kody Clemens	1.14	3.4	296	103	8.4
76	Cole Young	1.15	4.2	364	118	7.4
77	Bryan Reynolds	1.21	3.8	316	121	7.2
78	Yandy Díaz	1.34	5.1	378	113	8.3
79	Jordan Walker	1.35	4.4	328	115	7.2
80	Sal Stewart	1.36	4.7	342	116	8.1
81	Corbin Carroll	1.46	4.8	330	116	7.6
82	Christian Walker	1.46	4.6	314	114	8.3
83	Hunter Goodman	1.50	3.9	261	107	8.4
84	Caleb Durbin	1.60	5.2	324	109	8.9
85	Ben Rice	1.60	4.8	301	111	10.3
86	Kevin McGonigle	1.63	6.1	373	116	7.5
87	Luke Keaschall	1.71	5.3	311	109	7.8
88	Andrés Giménez	1.89	5.5	292	108	9.0
89	Brandon Marsh	1.90	5.9	312	113	7.8
90	Luis Arraez	1.93	8.7	450	114	6.3
91	Jung Hoo Lee	2.06	7.8	377	111	7.7
92	Willy Adames	2.21	6.8	309	114	9.0
93	Willson Contreras	2.25	5.9	261	101	9.4
94	Ernie Clement	2.33	9.5	410	119	7.2
95	Ian Happ	2.37	6.4	269	108	8.7
96	Elly De La Cruz	2.41	6.6	274	100	9.1
97	Randy Arozarena	2.50	7.8	314	113	8.8
98	Zach Neto	2.51	7.5	300	116	8.3
99	Kyle Schwarber	2.59	6.5	253	107	9.2
100	TJ Rumfield	2.78	9.7	348	116	8.1
101	Justin Crawford	2.79	7.4	264	103	9.2
102	Shohei Ohtani	2.83	8.8	313	109	8.4
103	Brooks Lee	2.85	9.9	348	111	7.9
104	Brandon Lowe	2.96	9.1	307	109	9.0
105	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.02	7.7	256	103	9.2
106	Otto Lopez	3.21	12.9	402	117	7.0
107	Nolan Arenado	3.29	10.1	306	111	7.6
108	Seiya Suzuki	3.33	9.2	275	101	7.2
109	Ezequiel Duran	3.35	9.6	288	107	8.4
110	Colson Montgomery	3.58	9.5	266	107	9.1
111	Jake McCarthy	3.68	11.7	318	100	7.8
112	Chandler Simpson	3.79	14.7	387	107	6.7
113	Nick Gonzales	3.84	13.6	355	114	7.4
114	Liam Hicks	4.36	14.9	342	107	7.2
115	Chase Meidroth	5.04	15.9	316	112	7.9
116	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.81	20.7	356	114	7.7
117	CJ Abrams	5.97	19.7	330	112	8.0
118	Pete Crow-Armstrong	7.94	25.1	316	118	9.0

Columns can be re-sorted for exploration, but a re-sorted table is always labeled "Sorted view" and is never presented as an alternative official ranking. The Rank column always shows the stored, frozen official rank — click it to return to that order.