Contact Luck Leaderboard

Contact Luck estimates how favorable a hitter's batted-ball outcomes have been relative to expectation. +3.0 means roughly three more favorable runs per 100 eligible batted balls than expected. The interval shows the uncertainty around that estimate. Contact Luck describes what happened — it is not a projection of future performance.

Data through Aug. 13, 2026 119 qualified hitters

Ranked players only (119 of 627 players qualify) — see methodology for the qualification rule.

Most favorable realized luck Least favorable outcomes relative to expectation

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	7.88	25.0	317	119	8.9
2	Ceddanne Rafaela	6.04	21.7	359	115	7.4
3	CJ Abrams	6.00	20.0	333	113	7.7
4	Chase Meidroth	5.31	16.9	318	113	7.8
5	Liam Hicks	4.36	14.9	342	107	7.3
6	Nick Gonzales	4.07	14.6	359	115	7.3
7	Chandler Simpson	3.79	14.7	387	107	6.6
8	Jake McCarthy	3.68	11.7	318	100	7.6
9	Nolan Arenado	3.29	10.1	306	111	7.7
10	Colson Montgomery	3.17	8.6	271	108	9.0
11	Seiya Suzuki	3.16	8.8	277	102	7.5
12	Kyle Schwarber	3.14	8.1	257	108	9.1
13	Otto Lopez	3.13	12.6	404	118	7.3
14	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2.94	7.6	257	104	9.4
15	Justin Crawford	2.88	7.7	267	104	9.3
16	Brandon Lowe	2.81	8.7	310	110	8.7
17	TJ Rumfield	2.78	9.7	348	116	8.2
18	Brooks Lee	2.70	9.5	351	112	8.3
19	Randy Arozarena	2.64	8.3	315	114	8.4
20	Shohei Ohtani	2.58	8.1	316	110	8.4
21	Ezequiel Duran	2.56	7.5	292	108	8.7
22	Zach Neto	2.51	7.5	300	116	8.0
23	Elly De La Cruz	2.45	6.8	276	101	9.3
24	Brandon Marsh	2.44	7.7	314	114	8.1
25	Ernie Clement	2.25	9.3	413	120	7.1
26	Luke Keaschall	2.23	7.0	313	110	7.9
27	Willy Adames	2.21	6.8	309	114	8.6
28	Ian Happ	2.19	5.9	271	109	8.2
29	Willson Contreras	2.16	5.7	265	102	9.1
30	Caleb Durbin	2.10	6.9	328	110	8.3
31	Luis Arraez	2.09	9.5	455	115	6.5
32	Jung Hoo Lee	2.06	7.8	377	111	8.3
33	Andrés Giménez	1.65	4.9	294	109	9.8
34	Kevin McGonigle	1.62	6.1	375	117	7.5
35	Hunter Goodman	1.50	3.9	261	107	8.4
36	Christian Walker	1.46	4.6	314	114	8.2
37	Corbin Carroll	1.46	4.8	330	116	7.5
38	Sal Stewart	1.45	5.0	344	117	7.9
39	Ben Rice	1.36	4.1	303	112	10.0
40	Jordan Walker	1.35	4.4	328	115	7.4
41	Yandy Díaz	1.34	5.1	378	113	8.0
42	Spencer Torkelson	1.20	3.3	273	116	9.3
43	Kody Clemens	1.11	3.3	297	104	8.4
44	Cole Young	1.10	4.0	365	119	7.4
45	Brice Turang	1.08	3.4	319	114	8.1
46	Isaac Paredes	1.06	3.7	352	113	7.1
47	Bryan Reynolds	1.04	3.3	319	122	7.0
48	Jonathan Aranda	0.95	3.1	327	115	7.9
49	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.8
50	Bryson Stott	0.89	2.9	332	115	7.5
51	Rafael Devers	0.87	2.8	320	118	8.9
52	Trea Turner	0.76	2.8	375	117	7.1
53	Freddie Freeman	0.71	2.6	369	116	7.4
54	Daylen Lile	0.68	2.5	367	120	7.1
55	Carson Benge	0.68	2.2	329	114	8.8
56	Andy Pages	0.62	2.3	364	118	8.3
57	Alex Bregman	0.61	2.3	384	119	8.4
58	Matt Olson	0.57	1.9	336	121	7.5
59	Luis García Jr.	0.55	1.8	321	111	8.5
60	Tyler Soderstrom	0.55	1.6	300	105	8.4
61	Max Muncy	0.53	1.4	259	104	8.4
62	Cody Bellinger	0.53	1.6	307	102	9.8
63	Kazuma Okamoto	0.38	1.1	281	111	8.7
64	Xavier Edwards	0.38	1.4	380	120	6.7
65	Dillon Dingler	0.36	1.2	322	109	9.4
66	Ozzie Albies	0.35	1.4	399	121	7.1
67	Isaac Collins	0.31	0.8	257	102	8.8
68	Michael Harris II	0.13	0.5	349	113	7.6
69	Brayan Rocchio	0.11	0.4	353	119	7.2
70	Jake Burger	-0.04	-0.1	301	114	9.1
71	Nolan Schanuel	-0.06	-0.2	319	101	6.6
72	Nasim Nuñez	-0.09	-0.2	265	107	8.9
73	Mauricio Dubón	-0.14	-0.5	368	115	6.9
74	Michael Busch	-0.17	-0.6	341	119	8.5
75	Kyle Tucker	-0.21	-0.7	319	113	7.8
76	Steven Kwan	-0.37	-1.3	345	110	7.2
77	Masyn Winn	-0.41	-1.3	314	110	7.1
78	Alec Burleson	-0.46	-1.7	373	117	8.2
79	Junior Caminero	-0.51	-1.8	358	118	6.8
80	Colt Keith	-0.55	-1.4	252	103	10.3
81	Kyle Karros	-0.81	-2.1	258	105	7.9
82	Yordan Alvarez	-0.82	-2.8	345	117	8.5
83	Nico Hoerner	-0.91	-3.9	427	119	7.3
84	Josh Naylor	-0.93	-3.5	374	113	7.3
85	Chase DeLauter	-0.94	-3.1	331	102	8.6
86	Wilyer Abreu	-1.03	-3.6	350	117	8.2
87	Jakob Marsee	-1.08	-3.2	293	112	8.9
88	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.09	-3.9	361	117	7.5
89	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.11	-4.1	366	118	7.3
90	Gunnar Henderson	-1.17	-4.2	356	120	8.3
91	Iván Herrera	-1.25	-4.4	356	119	6.5
92	Josh Bell	-1.26	-4.2	333	116	8.4
93	Bo Bichette	-1.32	-5.2	393	120	8.2
94	Gavin Sheets	-1.45	-3.7	255	106	8.2
95	Brett Baty	-1.66	-3.9	236	100	8.0
96	Julio Rodríguez	-1.89	-6.3	333	110	7.1
97	Taylor Ward	-2.12	-7.0	332	116	7.3
98	Mike Trout	-2.18	-5.5	250	100	11.1
99	Pete Alonso	-2.26	-7.4	327	117	8.4
100	Bryce Harper	-2.31	-7.5	323	119	9.2
101	Austin Riley	-2.37	-6.7	284	118	8.3
102	Dansby Swanson	-2.40	-7.0	290	111	8.2
103	Jarren Duran	-2.55	-7.9	308	109	9.6
104	Jo Adell	-2.87	-9.7	339	116	8.2
105	Marcus Semien	-2.90	-8.0	277	101	9.8
106	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-2.95	-10.7	363	113	7.6
107	Cam Smith	-3.05	-8.7	286	110	9.1
108	Jackson Merrill	-3.10	-10.6	343	116	8.5
109	JJ Wetherholt	-3.16	-11.4	360	114	7.6
110	Ketel Marte	-3.19	-12.5	390	115	6.8
111	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.73	-10.2	274	103	7.9
112	William Contreras	-3.73	-13.5	361	111	6.8
113	Brandon Nimmo	-3.75	-12.6	336	115	9.7
114	Miguel Vargas	-3.89	-13.6	349	115	8.0
115	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	9.9
116	Xander Bogaerts	-4.11	-12.8	312	111	7.4
117	Manny Machado	-4.33	-14.5	334	117	7.6
118	Alec Bohm	-4.47	-16.2	363	116	7.1
119	Salvador Perez	-6.41	-22.1	345	113	6.7

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Salvador Perez	-6.41	-22.1	345	113	6.7
2	Alec Bohm	-4.47	-16.2	363	116	7.1
3	Manny Machado	-4.33	-14.5	334	117	7.6
4	Xander Bogaerts	-4.11	-12.8	312	111	7.4
5	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	9.9
6	Miguel Vargas	-3.89	-13.6	349	115	8.0
7	Brandon Nimmo	-3.75	-12.6	336	115	9.7
8	William Contreras	-3.73	-13.5	361	111	6.8
9	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.73	-10.2	274	103	7.9
10	Ketel Marte	-3.19	-12.5	390	115	6.8
11	JJ Wetherholt	-3.16	-11.4	360	114	7.6
12	Jackson Merrill	-3.10	-10.6	343	116	8.5
13	Cam Smith	-3.05	-8.7	286	110	9.1
14	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-2.95	-10.7	363	113	7.6
15	Marcus Semien	-2.90	-8.0	277	101	9.8
16	Jo Adell	-2.87	-9.7	339	116	8.2
17	Jarren Duran	-2.55	-7.9	308	109	9.6
18	Dansby Swanson	-2.40	-7.0	290	111	8.2
19	Austin Riley	-2.37	-6.7	284	118	8.3
20	Bryce Harper	-2.31	-7.5	323	119	9.2
21	Pete Alonso	-2.26	-7.4	327	117	8.4
22	Mike Trout	-2.18	-5.5	250	100	11.1
23	Taylor Ward	-2.12	-7.0	332	116	7.3
24	Julio Rodríguez	-1.89	-6.3	333	110	7.1
25	Brett Baty	-1.66	-3.9	236	100	8.0
26	Gavin Sheets	-1.45	-3.7	255	106	8.2
27	Bo Bichette	-1.32	-5.2	393	120	8.2
28	Josh Bell	-1.26	-4.2	333	116	8.4
29	Iván Herrera	-1.25	-4.4	356	119	6.5
30	Gunnar Henderson	-1.17	-4.2	356	120	8.3
31	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.11	-4.1	366	118	7.3
32	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.09	-3.9	361	117	7.5
33	Jakob Marsee	-1.08	-3.2	293	112	8.9
34	Wilyer Abreu	-1.03	-3.6	350	117	8.2
35	Chase DeLauter	-0.94	-3.1	331	102	8.6
36	Josh Naylor	-0.93	-3.5	374	113	7.3
37	Nico Hoerner	-0.91	-3.9	427	119	7.3
38	Yordan Alvarez	-0.82	-2.8	345	117	8.5
39	Kyle Karros	-0.81	-2.1	258	105	7.9
40	Colt Keith	-0.55	-1.4	252	103	10.3
41	Junior Caminero	-0.51	-1.8	358	118	6.8
42	Alec Burleson	-0.46	-1.7	373	117	8.2
43	Masyn Winn	-0.41	-1.3	314	110	7.1
44	Steven Kwan	-0.37	-1.3	345	110	7.2
45	Kyle Tucker	-0.21	-0.7	319	113	7.8
46	Michael Busch	-0.17	-0.6	341	119	8.5
47	Mauricio Dubón	-0.14	-0.5	368	115	6.9
48	Nasim Nuñez	-0.09	-0.2	265	107	8.9
49	Nolan Schanuel	-0.06	-0.2	319	101	6.6
50	Jake Burger	-0.04	-0.1	301	114	9.1
51	Brayan Rocchio	0.11	0.4	353	119	7.2
52	Michael Harris II	0.13	0.5	349	113	7.6
53	Isaac Collins	0.31	0.8	257	102	8.8
54	Ozzie Albies	0.35	1.4	399	121	7.1
55	Dillon Dingler	0.36	1.2	322	109	9.4
56	Xavier Edwards	0.38	1.4	380	120	6.7
57	Kazuma Okamoto	0.38	1.1	281	111	8.7
58	Cody Bellinger	0.53	1.6	307	102	9.8
59	Max Muncy	0.53	1.4	259	104	8.4
60	Tyler Soderstrom	0.55	1.6	300	105	8.4
61	Luis García Jr.	0.55	1.8	321	111	8.5
62	Matt Olson	0.57	1.9	336	121	7.5
63	Alex Bregman	0.61	2.3	384	119	8.4
64	Andy Pages	0.62	2.3	364	118	8.3
65	Carson Benge	0.68	2.2	329	114	8.8
66	Daylen Lile	0.68	2.5	367	120	7.1
67	Freddie Freeman	0.71	2.6	369	116	7.4
68	Trea Turner	0.76	2.8	375	117	7.1
69	Rafael Devers	0.87	2.8	320	118	8.9
70	Bryson Stott	0.89	2.9	332	115	7.5
71	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.8
72	Jonathan Aranda	0.95	3.1	327	115	7.9
73	Bryan Reynolds	1.04	3.3	319	122	7.0
74	Isaac Paredes	1.06	3.7	352	113	7.1
75	Brice Turang	1.08	3.4	319	114	8.1
76	Cole Young	1.10	4.0	365	119	7.4
77	Kody Clemens	1.11	3.3	297	104	8.4
78	Spencer Torkelson	1.20	3.3	273	116	9.3
79	Yandy Díaz	1.34	5.1	378	113	8.0
80	Jordan Walker	1.35	4.4	328	115	7.4
81	Ben Rice	1.36	4.1	303	112	10.0
82	Sal Stewart	1.45	5.0	344	117	7.9
83	Corbin Carroll	1.46	4.8	330	116	7.5
84	Christian Walker	1.46	4.6	314	114	8.2
85	Hunter Goodman	1.50	3.9	261	107	8.4
86	Kevin McGonigle	1.62	6.1	375	117	7.5
87	Andrés Giménez	1.65	4.9	294	109	9.8
88	Jung Hoo Lee	2.06	7.8	377	111	8.3
89	Luis Arraez	2.09	9.5	455	115	6.5
90	Caleb Durbin	2.10	6.9	328	110	8.3
91	Willson Contreras	2.16	5.7	265	102	9.1
92	Ian Happ	2.19	5.9	271	109	8.2
93	Willy Adames	2.21	6.8	309	114	8.6
94	Luke Keaschall	2.23	7.0	313	110	7.9
95	Ernie Clement	2.25	9.3	413	120	7.1
96	Brandon Marsh	2.44	7.7	314	114	8.1
97	Elly De La Cruz	2.45	6.8	276	101	9.3
98	Zach Neto	2.51	7.5	300	116	8.0
99	Ezequiel Duran	2.56	7.5	292	108	8.7
100	Shohei Ohtani	2.58	8.1	316	110	8.4
101	Randy Arozarena	2.64	8.3	315	114	8.4
102	Brooks Lee	2.70	9.5	351	112	8.3
103	TJ Rumfield	2.78	9.7	348	116	8.2
104	Brandon Lowe	2.81	8.7	310	110	8.7
105	Justin Crawford	2.88	7.7	267	104	9.3
106	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2.94	7.6	257	104	9.4
107	Otto Lopez	3.13	12.6	404	118	7.3
108	Kyle Schwarber	3.14	8.1	257	108	9.1
109	Seiya Suzuki	3.16	8.8	277	102	7.5
110	Colson Montgomery	3.17	8.6	271	108	9.0
111	Nolan Arenado	3.29	10.1	306	111	7.7
112	Jake McCarthy	3.68	11.7	318	100	7.6
113	Chandler Simpson	3.79	14.7	387	107	6.6
114	Nick Gonzales	4.07	14.6	359	115	7.3
115	Liam Hicks	4.36	14.9	342	107	7.3
116	Chase Meidroth	5.31	16.9	318	113	7.8
117	CJ Abrams	6.00	20.0	333	113	7.7
118	Ceddanne Rafaela	6.04	21.7	359	115	7.4
119	Pete Crow-Armstrong	7.88	25.0	317	119	8.9

Columns can be re-sorted for exploration, but a re-sorted table is always labeled "Sorted view" and is never presented as an alternative official ranking. The Rank column always shows the stored, frozen official rank — click it to return to that order.