Why Contact Luck Exists
Two balls in play can tell completely different stories. Contact Luck measures the run-value gap between what a batted ball was expected to produce and what actually happened.
Hard line drive
Riley Greene (DET) vs HOU — 2024-06-14
Illustrative animation — not a reconstruction of the actual ball flight or defender positioning.
Contact
Expectation
The model's outcome distribution for this batted ball, before the result is revealed.
Expected run value: +1.29
Reality
Result: Out
Observed run value: -0.25
“Riley Greene flies out sharply to center fielder Jake Meyers.”
Contact Luck
-1.55 runs
The contact was worth more than the recorded outcome.
Weak bloop
Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs CHC — 2024-06-21
Illustrative animation — not a reconstruction of the actual ball flight or defender positioning.
Contact
Expectation
The model's outcome distribution for this batted ball, before the result is revealed.
Expected run value: -0.25
Reality
Result: Single
Observed run value: +0.46
“Francisco Lindor singles on a pop up to right fielder Seiya Suzuki.”
Contact Luck
+0.71 runs
The recorded outcome was worth more than the contact was expected to produce.
These two plays are real, individual batted balls from the 2024 MLB season, scored with the same frozen Contact Luck model used throughout this site (see the recorded model configuration in the methodology page's technical detail). They were chosen to illustrate two clear, contrasting cases — they are not a representative sample of a typical batted ball, and a single play like either of these is never treated as its own judgment; it only ever contributes to a player's season-long total.
Try It Yourself
Change exit velocity and launch angle to see how the frozen model responds. All other model inputs are held fixed to the selected real play.
Model sensitivity analysis, not a reconstruction of physical ball flight.
Loading the counterfactual grid…
Illustrative field view driven by the selected exit velocity and launch angle — a model sensitivity visualization, not a reconstruction of physical ball flight.
Expected outcomes
Expected run value —
What if the realized result were…
Contact Luck
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