Contact Luck Leaderboard

Contact Luck estimates how favorable a hitter's batted-ball outcomes have been relative to expectation. +3.0 means roughly three more favorable runs per 100 eligible batted balls than expected. The interval shows the uncertainty around that estimate. Contact Luck describes what happened — it is not a projection of future performance.

Data through Aug. 9, 2026 109 qualified hitters

Ranked players only (109 of 623 players qualify) — see methodology for the qualification rule.

Most favorable realized luck Least favorable outcomes relative to expectation

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Games	Interval width
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	8.18	25.3	309	116	9.1
2	CJ Abrams	5.90	19.2	326	111	8.0
3	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.82	20.0	344	111	7.8
4	Chase Meidroth	4.54	14.2	313	111	7.4
5	Liam Hicks	4.35	14.5	334	105	7.2
6	Nick Gonzales	3.76	13.2	350	112	7.6
7	Chandler Simpson	3.71	14.0	377	105	7.6
8	Colson Montgomery	3.64	9.6	263	105	9.5
9	Otto Lopez	3.55	13.9	393	115	7.1
10	Ezequiel Duran	3.33	9.4	282	104	8.6
11	Justin Crawford	3.18	8.1	255	100	9.2
12	Brandon Lowe	3.07	9.3	303	107	8.9
13	Shohei Ohtani	3.07	9.3	303	106	8.4
14	TJ Rumfield	2.99	10.2	340	113	8.3
15	Nolan Arenado	2.98	8.8	294	108	7.7
16	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2.95	7.4	252	101	9.8
17	Kyle Schwarber	2.71	6.7	246	104	9.8
18	Hunter Goodman	2.57	6.5	253	104	7.8
19	Brooks Lee	2.55	8.6	336	108	8.5
20	Zach Neto	2.54	7.4	292	113	8.4
21	Ernie Clement	2.49	10.0	402	116	7.1
22	Jung Hoo Lee	2.41	8.8	364	108	8.2
23	Ian Happ	2.39	6.3	263	106	8.5
24	Luis Arraez	2.37	10.3	437	111	6.7
25	Brandon Marsh	2.06	6.3	306	110	7.8
26	Willy Adames	1.96	5.9	300	111	8.7
27	Christian Walker	1.84	5.7	307	112	8.5
28	Randy Arozarena	1.81	5.6	308	111	8.7
29	Luke Keaschall	1.68	5.1	305	106	7.9
30	Caleb Durbin	1.67	5.3	317	106	8.8
31	Bryan Reynolds	1.61	5.0	311	119	7.7
32	Andrés Giménez	1.60	4.6	286	105	9.3
33	Kevin McGonigle	1.58	5.8	367	114	7.4
34	Ben Rice	1.41	4.2	297	109	9.9
35	Corbin Carroll	1.40	4.5	319	113	8.0
36	Brice Turang	1.33	4.2	312	111	7.9
37	Cole Young	1.32	4.7	356	116	7.9
38	Sal Stewart	1.18	3.9	335	114	8.9
39	Jordan Walker	1.16	3.7	323	112	7.3
40	Andy Pages	1.15	4.1	351	114	8.2
41	Rafael Devers	1.06	3.4	316	115	9.1
42	Jonathan Aranda	1.06	3.4	318	112	8.4
43	Isaac Paredes	1.02	3.5	340	110	7.2
44	Yandy Díaz	1.00	3.6	366	110	8.5
45	Kody Clemens	0.98	2.8	291	101	8.6
46	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.6
47	Tyler Soderstrom	0.89	2.6	294	103	8.4
48	Ozzie Albies	0.85	3.3	390	118	7.0
49	Daylen Lile	0.80	2.9	356	117	6.9
50	Matt Olson	0.73	2.4	329	118	7.1
51	Trea Turner	0.72	2.6	366	114	7.7
52	Bryson Stott	0.68	2.2	320	111	7.7
53	Dillon Dingler	0.63	2.0	314	106	9.8
54	Brayan Rocchio	0.61	2.1	344	116	7.6
55	Xavier Edwards	0.58	2.2	371	117	6.9
56	Carson Benge	0.58	1.8	319	111	9.1
57	Cody Bellinger	0.53	1.6	307	102	9.8
58	Freddie Freeman	0.52	1.9	360	112	7.4
59	Spencer Torkelson	0.45	1.2	267	113	9.2
60	Jake Burger	0.42	1.2	291	111	9.1
61	Kyle Tucker	0.34	1.0	309	109	7.8
62	Luis García Jr.	0.30	0.9	311	108	8.6
63	Mauricio Dubón	0.28	1.0	356	112	6.6
64	Kazuma Okamoto	0.24	0.7	276	109	8.8
65	Max Muncy	0.23	0.6	249	100	8.9
66	Michael Harris II	0.05	0.2	341	110	7.9
67	Nasim Nuñez	-0.02	-0.0	259	105	9.1
68	Alex Bregman	-0.14	-0.5	376	116	8.4
69	Michael Busch	-0.28	-0.9	331	116	8.5
70	Colt Keith	-0.29	-0.7	248	102	10.3
71	Steven Kwan	-0.31	-1.0	334	107	8.0
72	Kyle Karros	-0.38	-1.0	253	103	8.1
73	Junior Caminero	-0.53	-1.8	346	115	6.7
74	Jakob Marsee	-0.56	-1.6	283	109	8.5
75	Masyn Winn	-0.79	-2.4	308	107	7.5
76	Yordan Alvarez	-0.83	-2.8	336	114	8.8
77	Gunnar Henderson	-0.84	-2.9	346	117	8.6
78	Geraldo Perdomo	-0.90	-3.2	353	115	7.6
79	Alec Burleson	-0.91	-3.3	367	114	8.1
80	Iván Herrera	-0.92	-3.2	346	116	6.8
81	Josh Naylor	-0.92	-3.4	369	111	6.8
82	Bo Bichette	-0.97	-3.7	383	117	7.8
83	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-0.98	-3.5	359	116	7.5
84	Gavin Sheets	-1.08	-2.7	252	104	8.0
85	Nico Hoerner	-1.09	-4.5	418	117	7.3
86	Josh Bell	-1.10	-3.5	320	112	9.0
87	Wilyer Abreu	-1.46	-4.9	339	113	7.9
88	Taylor Ward	-1.91	-6.2	325	114	7.7
89	Austin Riley	-1.97	-5.4	276	115	8.7
90	Julio Rodríguez	-2.00	-6.5	326	107	7.1
91	Dansby Swanson	-2.17	-6.2	286	109	7.9
92	Bryce Harper	-2.53	-8.0	316	115	9.9
93	Jarren Duran	-2.56	-7.6	296	105	9.1
94	Pete Alonso	-2.59	-8.2	317	114	7.9
95	Jo Adell	-2.62	-8.6	328	113	8.3
96	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-2.85	-9.9	348	109	7.8
97	William Contreras	-2.89	-10.1	351	107	7.0
98	Jackson Merrill	-3.01	-10.1	334	113	8.5
99	JJ Wetherholt	-3.08	-10.9	354	111	8.4
100	Cam Smith	-3.11	-8.6	277	107	9.4
101	Miguel Vargas	-3.52	-12.0	341	113	8.2
102	Ketel Marte	-3.65	-13.8	379	112	6.5
103	Brandon Nimmo	-3.96	-12.9	325	111	10.3
104	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	10.2
105	Ezequiel Tovar	-4.14	-11.2	270	101	8.3
106	Xander Bogaerts	-4.14	-12.6	305	109	7.7
107	Manny Machado	-4.17	-13.4	322	114	7.8
108	Alec Bohm	-4.32	-15.3	354	113	7.3
109	Salvador Perez	-6.26	-21.0	335	110	6.9

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Games	Interval width
1	Salvador Perez	-6.26	-21.0	335	110	6.9
2	Alec Bohm	-4.32	-15.3	354	113	7.3
3	Manny Machado	-4.17	-13.4	322	114	7.8
4	Xander Bogaerts	-4.14	-12.6	305	109	7.7
5	Ezequiel Tovar	-4.14	-11.2	270	101	8.3
6	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	10.2
7	Brandon Nimmo	-3.96	-12.9	325	111	10.3
8	Ketel Marte	-3.65	-13.8	379	112	6.5
9	Miguel Vargas	-3.52	-12.0	341	113	8.2
10	Cam Smith	-3.11	-8.6	277	107	9.4
11	JJ Wetherholt	-3.08	-10.9	354	111	8.4
12	Jackson Merrill	-3.01	-10.1	334	113	8.5
13	William Contreras	-2.89	-10.1	351	107	7.0
14	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-2.85	-9.9	348	109	7.8
15	Jo Adell	-2.62	-8.6	328	113	8.3
16	Pete Alonso	-2.59	-8.2	317	114	7.9
17	Jarren Duran	-2.56	-7.6	296	105	9.1
18	Bryce Harper	-2.53	-8.0	316	115	9.9
19	Dansby Swanson	-2.17	-6.2	286	109	7.9
20	Julio Rodríguez	-2.00	-6.5	326	107	7.1
21	Austin Riley	-1.97	-5.4	276	115	8.7
22	Taylor Ward	-1.91	-6.2	325	114	7.7
23	Wilyer Abreu	-1.46	-4.9	339	113	7.9
24	Josh Bell	-1.10	-3.5	320	112	9.0
25	Nico Hoerner	-1.09	-4.5	418	117	7.3
26	Gavin Sheets	-1.08	-2.7	252	104	8.0
27	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-0.98	-3.5	359	116	7.5
28	Bo Bichette	-0.97	-3.7	383	117	7.8
29	Josh Naylor	-0.92	-3.4	369	111	6.8
30	Iván Herrera	-0.92	-3.2	346	116	6.8
31	Alec Burleson	-0.91	-3.3	367	114	8.1
32	Geraldo Perdomo	-0.90	-3.2	353	115	7.6
33	Gunnar Henderson	-0.84	-2.9	346	117	8.6
34	Yordan Alvarez	-0.83	-2.8	336	114	8.8
35	Masyn Winn	-0.79	-2.4	308	107	7.5
36	Jakob Marsee	-0.56	-1.6	283	109	8.5
37	Junior Caminero	-0.53	-1.8	346	115	6.7
38	Kyle Karros	-0.38	-1.0	253	103	8.1
39	Steven Kwan	-0.31	-1.0	334	107	8.0
40	Colt Keith	-0.29	-0.7	248	102	10.3
41	Michael Busch	-0.28	-0.9	331	116	8.5
42	Alex Bregman	-0.14	-0.5	376	116	8.4
43	Nasim Nuñez	-0.02	-0.0	259	105	9.1
44	Michael Harris II	0.05	0.2	341	110	7.9
45	Max Muncy	0.23	0.6	249	100	8.9
46	Kazuma Okamoto	0.24	0.7	276	109	8.8
47	Mauricio Dubón	0.28	1.0	356	112	6.6
48	Luis García Jr.	0.30	0.9	311	108	8.6
49	Kyle Tucker	0.34	1.0	309	109	7.8
50	Jake Burger	0.42	1.2	291	111	9.1
51	Spencer Torkelson	0.45	1.2	267	113	9.2
52	Freddie Freeman	0.52	1.9	360	112	7.4
53	Cody Bellinger	0.53	1.6	307	102	9.8
54	Carson Benge	0.58	1.8	319	111	9.1
55	Xavier Edwards	0.58	2.2	371	117	6.9
56	Brayan Rocchio	0.61	2.1	344	116	7.6
57	Dillon Dingler	0.63	2.0	314	106	9.8
58	Bryson Stott	0.68	2.2	320	111	7.7
59	Trea Turner	0.72	2.6	366	114	7.7
60	Matt Olson	0.73	2.4	329	118	7.1
61	Daylen Lile	0.80	2.9	356	117	6.9
62	Ozzie Albies	0.85	3.3	390	118	7.0
63	Tyler Soderstrom	0.89	2.6	294	103	8.4
64	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.6
65	Kody Clemens	0.98	2.8	291	101	8.6
66	Yandy Díaz	1.00	3.6	366	110	8.5
67	Isaac Paredes	1.02	3.5	340	110	7.2
68	Jonathan Aranda	1.06	3.4	318	112	8.4
69	Rafael Devers	1.06	3.4	316	115	9.1
70	Andy Pages	1.15	4.1	351	114	8.2
71	Jordan Walker	1.16	3.7	323	112	7.3
72	Sal Stewart	1.18	3.9	335	114	8.9
73	Cole Young	1.32	4.7	356	116	7.9
74	Brice Turang	1.33	4.2	312	111	7.9
75	Corbin Carroll	1.40	4.5	319	113	8.0
76	Ben Rice	1.41	4.2	297	109	9.9
77	Kevin McGonigle	1.58	5.8	367	114	7.4
78	Andrés Giménez	1.60	4.6	286	105	9.3
79	Bryan Reynolds	1.61	5.0	311	119	7.7
80	Caleb Durbin	1.67	5.3	317	106	8.8
81	Luke Keaschall	1.68	5.1	305	106	7.9
82	Randy Arozarena	1.81	5.6	308	111	8.7
83	Christian Walker	1.84	5.7	307	112	8.5
84	Willy Adames	1.96	5.9	300	111	8.7
85	Brandon Marsh	2.06	6.3	306	110	7.8
86	Luis Arraez	2.37	10.3	437	111	6.7
87	Ian Happ	2.39	6.3	263	106	8.5
88	Jung Hoo Lee	2.41	8.8	364	108	8.2
89	Ernie Clement	2.49	10.0	402	116	7.1
90	Zach Neto	2.54	7.4	292	113	8.4
91	Brooks Lee	2.55	8.6	336	108	8.5
92	Hunter Goodman	2.57	6.5	253	104	7.8
93	Kyle Schwarber	2.71	6.7	246	104	9.8
94	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2.95	7.4	252	101	9.8
95	Nolan Arenado	2.98	8.8	294	108	7.7
96	TJ Rumfield	2.99	10.2	340	113	8.3
97	Shohei Ohtani	3.07	9.3	303	106	8.4
98	Brandon Lowe	3.07	9.3	303	107	8.9
99	Justin Crawford	3.18	8.1	255	100	9.2
100	Ezequiel Duran	3.33	9.4	282	104	8.6
101	Otto Lopez	3.55	13.9	393	115	7.1
102	Colson Montgomery	3.64	9.6	263	105	9.5
103	Chandler Simpson	3.71	14.0	377	105	7.6
104	Nick Gonzales	3.76	13.2	350	112	7.6
105	Liam Hicks	4.35	14.5	334	105	7.2
106	Chase Meidroth	4.54	14.2	313	111	7.4
107	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.82	20.0	344	111	7.8
108	CJ Abrams	5.90	19.2	326	111	8.0
109	Pete Crow-Armstrong	8.18	25.3	309	116	9.1

Columns can be re-sorted for exploration, but a re-sorted table is always labeled "Sorted view" and is never presented as an alternative official ranking. The Rank column always shows the stored, frozen official rank — click it to return to that order.